# Prediction Markets Monthly Report: Volume and Share

> A monthly prediction markets report: volume, open interest and traders by platform and category, on-chain venues counted from contracts and the rest cited.

Markdown copy of https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/prediction-markets-monthly-report

**Question:** How did prediction market volume and market share change this month, and which categories drove it?

- Kind: Report in Voltfin Folio
- Topic: [Markets and trading](https://voltfincrypto.com/topics/trading)
- Chains: Multi-chain, Polygon, Base, BNB Chain, Solana
- Status: Planned. The data is not published yet, so this page states no figure; each figure will open its receipt when it is.

Prediction markets let people trade contracts that pay out on real-world outcomes: elections, sports, economic data and crypto prices. This report reviews each month in one dated edition: how much was traded, how much money sat in open positions, how many traders took part and how volume split between platforms and categories.

On-chain venues are counted from their own contracts, trade by trade, so their figures can be checked again by anyone. Regulated exchanges that run off-chain publish their own volume, which is quoted with its source and kept apart, because the two are not counted the same way. Each edition also names the markets that drew the most money and how disputed resolutions were settled.

## Blueprint

### The month in one paragraph

Total volume, open interest and traders, the platform that gained most and the events that drove the month.

Cites: Volume this month; Open interest at month end; Active traders.

### Platforms and share

Volume and open interest by platform, on-chain and off-chain kept apart, with each platform's share and change from last month.

Cites: Volume by platform; On-chain share of volume; Change from last month.

### What people traded

Volume by category, from sports and politics to economics and crypto prices, and how the mix moved during the month.

Cites: Volume by category; Largest category's share.

### The month's biggest markets

The markets with the most volume and open interest, their resolution dates and how concentrated the largest positions were.

Cites: Top markets by volume; Largest open positions.

### Resolutions and disputes

Markets resolved in the month, those disputed or reversed and how long the disputed ones took to settle.

Cites: Markets resolved; Resolutions disputed.

### Coverage and corrections

The venues read, the definition used for each platform and corrections to earlier editions.

## How it will be measured

- On-chain volume counts each matched trade once, from exchange fill events, valued in the collateral stablecoin; splits and merges of outcome tokens are not counted as trades.
- Open interest is the collateral locked in outstanding outcome tokens at the month's last block, read from each venue's conditional token contracts.
- Off-chain volume is the figure each regulated exchange publishes for the month, recorded with its source and never added to on-chain totals without a label.
- Categories come from each platform's market metadata, mapped to one shared list so that platforms can be compared.

## Data it needs

- `prediction_markets_daily` (to build): Volume, open interest and traders per prediction market and category per day.
- `address_labels` (to build): Labels for known addresses: exchanges, bridges, protocols, funds, treasuries, sanctioned addresses and known attackers.
- Source: OrderFilled events from Polymarket's exchange contracts on Polygon
- Source: Conditional token split, merge and redeem events, for open interest
- Source: Fill events of on-chain prediction market contracts on Base, BNB Chain and Solana
- Source: Monthly volume published by off-chain regulated exchanges, recorded with its source
- Source: Market category labels from each platform's market metadata

## Questions

### Why do platforms count volume differently?

Some count the notional value of contracts traded, some the price paid and some both sides of each trade. The report uses one rule for on-chain venues, the collateral paid once per matched trade, and shows each off-chain exchange's own definition beside its figure.

### How are prediction markets resolved?

Each market names a resolution source and process in its rules. On Polymarket, outcomes are proposed and can be disputed through UMA's optimistic oracle; other venues use their own oracles or an operator's decision. The report lists the month's disputed or reversed resolutions.

### Which prediction markets are on-chain?

Polymarket settles on Polygon, and newer venues run on Base, BNB Chain and Solana. Regulated exchanges such as Kalshi run their order books off-chain. The report reads the on-chain venues from their contracts and cites the others.

### What makes a month unusually busy?

Large scheduled events: elections, championship games and major economic releases concentrate volume. The report compares each month with the same month a year earlier where data exists, so a seasonal event is not mistaken for a trend.

### How does this report relate to the volume dashboards?

The dashboards show prediction market volume day by day and week by week. This report is a dated monthly edition that sums the month, names what drove it and records resolutions, so a month can be cited later.

## Glossary

- **Outcome token**: A token that pays one unit of collateral if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not; a market's price is the price of this token.
- **Open interest**: The collateral locked in a venue's outstanding outcome tokens at a point in time.
- **Optimistic oracle**: A resolution process in which an outcome is proposed and accepted unless someone disputes it within a set period.

## Related apps

- [Prediction Market Volume by Platform](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/prediction-market-volume)
- [Polymarket Volume and Open Interest Tracker](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/polymarket-volume-open-interest)
- [DeFi Monthly Report: TVL, DEX Volume, Lending and Perps](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/defi-monthly-report)
- [Crypto ETF Monthly Report: Flows, Holdings and Launches](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/crypto-etf-monthly-report)
- [Crypto Liquidations Today: Longs vs Shorts](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/crypto-liquidations-today)
- [Liquidation Heatmap from On-Chain Positions](https://voltfincrypto.com/apps/liquidation-heatmap)

Build it in Voltfin Studio: https://app.voltfincrypto.com/signup?next=%2F