Long-term holder supply
BTCBitcoin in outputs unmoved for at least 155 days, at the latest day's last block.
Dashboard · VantagePlanned
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holder Supply
Are long-term Bitcoin holders selling or accumulating?
How much bitcoin sits in coins unmoved for at least 155 days, how much moved recently and how many long-held coins are spent each day.
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Blueprint
What the dashboard will show.
The dashboard as it will open in Vantage. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.
Supply
Long-term and short-term supply now and over time.
Short-term holder supply
BTCBitcoin in outputs created within the last 155 days, at the same block.
Long-term share of supply
%Long-term holder supply as a share of circulating supply at the same block.
Long-term supply, 30-day change
BTCThe change in long-term supply over the last 30 days: coins aging past the threshold minus long-held coins spent.
Long-term and short-term supply
BTCLong-term and short-term supply by day over the selected period, which together add up to circulating supply.
Supply by coin age
%Supply by coin-age band, from under a day to over ten years, as shares of supply by day.
Spending
Long-held coins spent per day, by the age they had.
Long-held coins spent, last day
BTCValue of long-held coins spent in the last complete day: inputs whose previous outputs were older than 155 days.
Long-held coins spent, 30 days
BTCLong-held coins spent over the last 30 days, summed by day.
Long-held spending by age
BTCLong-held coins spent per day over the selected period, split by the age band they had when they moved.
Heaviest spending days
The days with the most long-held coins spent in the period, with the age bands involved and whether labelled exchange wallets spent them.
- Period
- Last 90 days, last year or last four years
About
What it answers, and for whom.
Whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling or accumulating shows in two series this dashboard reads from the chain: the long-held coins spent each day, and the change in long-term supply as other coins age past the threshold. Supply is split at a common 155-day threshold, so coins unmoved for longer count as long-term holder supply and coins that moved more recently as short-term.
The split is by coin, not by person. When a long-held coin moves, even between two wallets of the same owner, its age restarts and it leaves long-term supply, and exchange wallets reset coin ages whenever they consolidate deposits. The dashboard shows long-held spending beside the change in long-term supply, so a drop can be traced to the days and age bands behind it.
Method
How it will be measured.
Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.
How receipts work →- Each unspent output's age is the time since the block that created it, from the UTXO set at the day's last block; outputs younger than 155 days are short-term supply and older ones long-term supply.
- Long-held coins spent per day are the values of inputs whose previous outputs were older than 155 days, read with getblock verbosity 3, which carries each input's prevout height and value.
- Supply by age band uses fixed bands from under a day to over ten years, and every figure is pinned to the day's last block with its hash.
- No entity clustering is applied: the split is by output age alone, and spends by labelled exchange wallets are flagged rather than removed.
The data it needs
Read from chain state and history
- bitcoin_supply_dailyTo buildBitcoin supply and holding ageBitcoin issued, supply by coin age band and by output script type (including coins whose public keys are already exposed), supply last moved long ago, and cost-basis measures.
- address_labelsTo buildAddress labelsLabels for known addresses: exchanges, bridges, protocols, funds, treasuries, sanctioned addresses and known attackers.
- The UTXO set at each day's last block, with each output's creation height and value
- getblock verbosity 3 prevout height and value for every spent input
- Block timestamps, to turn creation heights into ages
- Exchange wallet labels from the address registry, each with its source
Questions
Questions people ask.
What is a long-term holder in Bitcoin?
By the convention used here, a holder of coins unmoved for at least 155 days, the age after which coins become statistically less likely to move. It describes coins, not people: one person can hold both long-term and short-term coins.
Are long-term holders selling?
Long-term holders spend when coins older than the threshold move. The dashboard shows how many long-held coins are spent each day and the change in long-term supply, so you can see whether that spending outweighs the coins aging past 155 days. A move is not always a sale: coins also move between one owner's wallets.
Why does long-term holder supply rise when nobody is buying?
Because coins age into it. Every day, coins that last moved 155 days earlier cross the threshold, so long-term supply grows unless older coins are spent faster. Heavy buying therefore shows up in long-term supply about five months later.
What are HODL waves?
A chart of supply split into coin-age bands over time, from coins moved in the last day to coins unmoved for over a decade. Older bands thicken when holders sit still and thin when old coins move. The age-band chart on this dashboard is that view.
Do exchanges distort long-term holder figures?
They can. When an exchange consolidates customer deposits or rotates its wallets, the coins' ages reset even though nothing was sold. The dashboard flags days when labelled exchange wallets spent long-held coins, so those resets can be read for what they are.
- Coin age
- The time since an output was created, measured from the block that created it to the block being read.
- Long-term holder supply
- Bitcoin in outputs unmoved for at least 155 days, by the convention used here.
- Short-term holder supply
- Bitcoin in outputs created within the last 155 days, including coins that just moved after a long rest.
- HODL waves
- Supply split into coin-age bands over time, which shows how much of the supply has sat unmoved for each length of time.
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BitcoinBuild Bitcoin Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holder Supply on verified data.
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