Realized price
USDRealized cap divided by circulating supply at the latest day's last block.
Dashboard · VantagePlanned
Bitcoin Realized Price and MVRV Ratio
What is Bitcoin's realized price, and how far is the market above or below it?
The average price at which every bitcoin last moved, the cost basis of recent and long-term holders and where the market sits against them.
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Blueprint
What the dashboard will show.
The dashboard as it will open in Vantage. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.
Now
Realized price, MVRV and holder cost bases on the latest day.
MVRV ratio
ratioMarket cap divided by realized cap on the same day.
Short-term holder realized price
USDThe realized price of outputs younger than 155 days at the same block.
Long-term holder realized price
USDThe realized price of outputs older than 155 days at the same block.
Price against realized prices
USDThe reference price against the realized price and the short-term and long-term realized prices, by day over the selected period.
History
Market price against realized prices over the years.
Realized cap
USDRealized cap on the latest day: every unspent output valued at the price of the day it was created.
MVRV Z-score
The gap between market cap and realized cap divided by the standard deviation of market cap over the stated history window.
MVRV over time
ratioMVRV by day over the selected period, with a line at one where market and realized value meet.
Realized cap by holder group
USDRealized cap by day over the selected period, split into the short-term and long-term holder parts.
- Period
- Last year, last four years or since 2011
About
What it answers, and for whom.
Bitcoin's realized price is the average price at which every coin in existence last moved on-chain, and this dashboard sets it beside the market price, so the MVRV ratio shows how far the market sits above or below that aggregate cost basis. It does the same for short-term and long-term holders, split at a coin age of 155 days.
The method uses the chain's own record of when each output was created and values each coin at a reference price for that day. The ages are on-chain; the prices are not, so every figure names the price source behind it. Realized price describes past cost, not a target: the dashboard shows where the market stands against it, not where it will go.
Method
How it will be measured.
Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.
How receipts work →- Realized cap sums, over every unspent output at the day's last block, the output's value times the daily reference price of the day it was created.
- Realized price is realized cap divided by circulating supply; MVRV is market cap, that is supply times the day's reference price, divided by realized cap.
- Short-term and long-term cost bases repeat the calculation for outputs younger and older than 155 days.
- The reference price is the Chainlink BTC/USD feed on Ethereum where it has history, and before that a dated off-chain daily price series recorded with its source; each figure names which it used.
- Every figure is pinned to the day-end block of the UTXO set it was computed from, with its hash.
The data it needs
Chain data, with some off-chain sources
- bitcoin_supply_dailyTo buildBitcoin supply and holding ageBitcoin issued, supply by coin age band and by output script type (including coins whose public keys are already exposed), supply last moved long ago, and cost-basis measures.
- native_prices_dailyTo buildOracle prices by dayReference prices of major assets read from on-chain oracle feeds (Chainlink latestRoundData) at each day's last block, with each round's update time.
- market_caps_dailyTo buildMarket caps and dominanceMarket capitalization of major assets as circulating supply times a reference price, and each asset's share of the total, per day.
- The UTXO set at each day's last block, with each output's creation height and value
- Chainlink BTC/USD latestRoundData on Ethereum at day-end blocks
- A dated daily BTC/USD reference series for the years before the oracle, recorded with its source
- Block timestamps, to place each output's creation on a UTC day
Questions
Questions people ask.
What is Bitcoin's realized price?
The average price at which all bitcoin last moved: each coin is valued at the price on the day it last changed hands on-chain, and the total is divided by supply. It approximates the market's aggregate cost basis, although coins moved between one owner's wallets also reset to that day's price.
What is MVRV?
Market value to realized value: market cap divided by realized cap. Above one, the market values bitcoin above the price at which its coins last moved, on aggregate; below one, the coins are worth less than that. The ratio is descriptive, and the dashboard shows its history without thresholds or calls.
What is the short-term holder realized price?
The average price at which coins that moved within the last 155 days last moved. It approximates the cost basis of recent buyers, so the market trading below it means recent coins are, on average, held at a loss.
Is realized price on-chain data?
Half of it is. The age of every coin comes from the chain, but the price on each day does not, because Bitcoin has no native price. The dashboard uses an on-chain oracle price where one exists and a dated off-chain series before that, and names the source of every figure.
What is the MVRV Z-score?
A variant that divides the gap between market cap and realized cap by the standard deviation of market cap over its history, to compare today's gap with past ones. The dashboard shows it beside the plain ratio and states the history window it uses.
- Realized cap
- The sum of every unspent output's value at the price of the day it was created. It values each coin at its last-moved price, not today's.
- Cost basis
- The price at which a holder acquired a coin. On-chain, it is approximated by the price on the day the coin last moved.
- MVRV
- Market value divided by realized value. It compares what bitcoin is worth now with what its coins were worth when they last moved.
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