Bitcoin with exposed keys
BTCBitcoin in unspent outputs whose public key is visible on-chain, in any exposure class, at the latest day-end block.
Dashboard · VantagePlanned
Bitcoin Quantum Risk: BTC in Exposed Public Key Addresses
How much bitcoin sits in addresses whose public keys are already exposed on-chain?
Bitcoin held in outputs whose public keys are already visible on-chain, split by script type and tracked day by day.
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Blueprint
What the dashboard will show.
The dashboard as it will open in Vantage. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.
Exposure
Bitcoin in outputs whose public keys are visible, by class, at the latest snapshot.
Share of supply exposed
%Exposed bitcoin as a share of all bitcoin in the UTXO set at the same block height.
In P2PK outputs
BTCBitcoin locked directly to a full public key in pay-to-public-key outputs, most of them created in Bitcoin's first years.
In reused addresses
BTCBitcoin in P2PKH, P2WPKH, P2SH and P2WSH addresses that still hold a balance after an earlier spend revealed their key or script.
Exposed bitcoin by class
BTCExposed bitcoin split into P2PK, bare multisig, P2TR and reused addresses, at the latest snapshot.
Addresses and bitcoin per class
Addresses and bitcoin in every script class, exposed and hash-only, with each class's share of supply.
Trend
How exposed supply and new output types change day by day.
New outputs created as P2TR
%Taproot outputs as a share of all outputs created on the latest complete day.
Exposed bitcoin, 30-day change
BTCThe change in exposed bitcoin over the last 30 days, from coins moving into or out of exposed outputs.
P2TR share of new outputs by day
%The daily share of new outputs that are P2TR, the trend a move to hardened output types would show first.
Exposed bitcoin by class over time
BTCExposed bitcoin per class at each day's last block over the selected period.
- Period
- Last 90 days, last year or all history since 2009
About
What it answers, and for whom.
A large enough quantum computer could derive a private key from its public key, and Bitcoin reveals public keys in two ways: some output types show the key from the moment coins arrive, and every spend reveals the key behind the address it spends from. This dashboard measures how much bitcoin sits in outputs whose keys are already visible, split by script type, from the UTXO set itself.
The exposed classes are pay-to-public-key outputs, bare multisig, Taproot outputs (whose output key is written into the output) and older address types that were reused after a spend revealed their key. Coins in an unused P2PKH or P2WPKH address show only a hash of the key until they move. Proposals such as BIP-360 would add an output type with no key-path spend, so the share of new outputs that still expose a key is tracked too.
Read the headline as a measure of exposure, not as a date for any threat: it says which coins such a machine could reach, not when one might exist. Every figure is pinned to a block height, with the block hash and the UTXO snapshot it was counted from, so the split can be re-checked.
Method
How it will be measured.
Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.
How receipts work →- The UTXO set is read at the last block of each day, and every unspent output is classed by its scriptPubKey type: P2PK, bare multisig, P2PKH, P2WPKH, P2SH, P2WSH, P2TR or other.
- An output counts as exposed when its script shows a public key (P2PK, bare multisig and the P2TR output key) or when an earlier spend from the same address already revealed the key or script in its scriptSig or witness.
- Balances are summed per exposure class in BTC, with address counts beside them, and the classes are checked to add up to the full UTXO set at the same height.
- The share of new outputs created as P2TR, and later as any quantum-hardened type, is counted per day from the outputs of each block.
- Every figure carries a receipt: the block height and hash of its snapshot and the node read it came from.
The data it needs
Read from chain state and history
- bitcoin_supply_dailyTo buildBitcoin supply and holding ageBitcoin issued, supply by coin age band and by output script type (including coins whose public keys are already exposed), supply last moved long ago, and cost-basis measures.
- Bitcoin Core dumptxoutset snapshots at day-end heights, each output classed by scriptPubKey type
- Inputs of every spend (scriptSig and witness), to record which addresses have revealed their public key or script
- Outputs of each block counted by script type, for the share of new P2TR outputs
- gettxoutsetinfo totals at the same height, to check that the classes add up
Questions
Questions people ask.
Why are some bitcoin addresses vulnerable to quantum computers?
Bitcoin signatures rely on elliptic-curve cryptography, which Shor's algorithm could break on a large fault-tolerant quantum computer by deriving a private key from its public key. Coins whose public key is visible on-chain could then be spent by whoever runs the machine; coins behind an unrevealed key hash are not directly exposed.
Which bitcoin address types expose their public key?
Pay-to-public-key (P2PK) outputs and bare multisig show keys directly, and Taproot (P2TR) outputs contain a tweaked public key. P2PKH, P2WPKH, P2SH and P2WSH addresses show only a hash until coins are spent from them, so they become exposed when an address keeps a balance after its first spend.
Are Satoshi's coins exposed to quantum attacks?
Many early mining rewards were paid to P2PK outputs, which show the full public key, and most of them have never moved. They sit in the P2PK class of this dashboard. Which of them belonged to Satoshi Nakamoto is an attribution the chain itself cannot prove.
What is BIP-360?
BIP-360 proposes Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), an output type that works like Taproot without the key-path spend, so no public key is written into the output. It does not add post-quantum signatures by itself; it removes one place where keys are exposed, and coins would have to be moved into it.
Does Taproot make bitcoin more exposed to quantum attacks?
A Taproot output carries its output key in the script, so the key is visible from the moment coins arrive, unlike a fresh P2WPKH address that shows only a hash. That is why Taproot outputs are counted as exposed here, and why the daily share of new outputs that are P2TR is tracked.
- Public key exposure
- When a public key appears on-chain, in an output script or in the scriptSig or witness of a spend, so that anyone can read it.
- P2PK
- Pay-to-public-key, the earliest output type, which locks coins directly to a full public key written in the output.
- Key-path spend
- The Taproot spending path that uses a single signature for the output key, instead of revealing a script from the tree.
- Shor's algorithm
- A quantum algorithm that solves the discrete-logarithm problem behind elliptic-curve signatures, given a large enough fault-tolerant quantum computer.
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