Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Waking Up
Long-dormant bitcoin as it moves again: coins unmoved for five, seven or ten years and more, when they moved and how old they were.
BitcoinReport · FolioPlanned
How Much Bitcoin Does Satoshi Have? Satoshi-Era Coins Unspent
How much bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010 has never moved?
How much bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010 has never moved, what the chain can and cannot say about who mined it and which early coins moved.
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Blueprint
What the report will cover.
The report as it will open in Folio. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.
A quarterly edition, dated and cited
How Much Bitcoin Does Satoshi Have? Satoshi-Era Coins Unspent
Early coins in one paragraph
How much of the bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010 is still unspent at the edition's block, how much has ever moved and what changed since the last edition.
- Bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010
- Still unspent
- Moved since the last edition
By the month each block was mined
Unspent and spent coinbase value by the month each block was mined, which shows how the earliest coins have stayed put.
- Unspent value by month mined
- Share unspent by year
The early-miner pattern and its limits
What the extranonce pattern is and which blocks fit it, how much of their output is unspent and why none of this proves who mined them.
- Blocks fitting the pattern
- Unspent value in those blocks
Early coins that moved
Every 2009 or 2010 coinbase output spent since the last edition, with its block, the spending transaction and whether its block fits the pattern.
- Outputs moved this quarter
- Value moved this quarter
Public keys on show
How much of the unspent early supply sits in pay-to-public-key outputs with their keys visible on-chain, and why that matters for quantum risk.
- Unspent early supply in P2PK outputs
About
What it answers, and for whom.
This report measures how much of the bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010 has never moved: every coinbase output of those two years, checked against the UTXO set at a pinned block. Part of these coins is often attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the chain cannot prove who mined any block, so the report counts the coins and assigns them to no one.
The coins are watched because they are the oldest on the chain and include the blocks researchers link to a single early miner through patterns in nonces and extranonces. The report explains that pattern and its limits and shows the blocks that fit it apart from other early coinbase outputs. It also lists every early output that has moved since the last edition.
Most of these coins sit in pay-to-public-key outputs, which show their public keys on-chain, so they also come up in discussions of quantum risk. Each edition is dated, and every amount is pinned to a block with its hash.
Method
How it will be measured.
Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.
How receipts work →- Every coinbase transaction of blocks with 2009 and 2010 timestamps is read with getblock verbosity 2, and each output's spent status is checked against the UTXO set at the edition's block.
- Unspent value is the sum of those outputs still in the UTXO set; moved value is the rest, with the transaction and block that first spent each output.
- The early-miner pattern is identified from each block's extranonce progression and nonce range as the published research describes it; blocks that fit it are shown apart and never labelled as anyone's.
- Each edition pins every amount to one block, with its height and hash, so a later move appears in the next edition rather than changing this one.
The data it needs
Read from chain state and history
- bitcoin_supply_dailyTo buildBitcoin supply and holding ageBitcoin issued, supply by coin age band and by output script type (including coins whose public keys are already exposed), supply last moved long ago, and cost-basis measures.
- bitcoin_network_dailyTo buildBitcoin network by dayBlocks, hashrate implied by difficulty, difficulty, fees, transaction counts, block weight and miner revenue (subsidy plus fees) per day.
- getblock verbosity 2 for every block with a 2009 or 2010 timestamp: coinbase outputs, values and scripts
- Spent status of each of those outputs from the UTXO set at the edition's block
- The first spending transaction of each output that moved, from the spending block
- Coinbase extranonce and header nonce values, for the published early-miner pattern
Questions
Questions people ask.
How much bitcoin does Satoshi Nakamoto have?
No one can say from the chain. What it shows is how much bitcoin mined in 2009 and 2010 is still unspent and which early blocks fit a mining pattern researchers attribute to one miner. Linking that miner to Satoshi Nakamoto is an inference, not an on-chain fact, and this report keeps the two apart.
Have Satoshi's coins ever moved?
Almost none of the coins from blocks that fit the early-miner pattern have moved, and most of the few that did were spent in 2009 and 2010, including the coins in the first transaction between two people. When any early output moves, the report lists it with its block and whether that block fits the pattern.
What is the Patoshi pattern?
A pattern in the extranonce values and nonce ranges of early blocks that suggests one miner, running distinctive software, found a large share of the blocks in Bitcoin's first year. It was described by a researcher in 2013 and is widely cited, but it is a statistical inference about mining behaviour, not proof of identity.
Why do people watch satoshi-era coins?
They are the oldest unspent coins on the chain, a large body of supply that has never traded, and any move would be read as news about who controls them. Many also sit in outputs whose public keys are visible on-chain, which matters in discussions of quantum risk.
Are the coins mined in 2009 and 2010 lost?
Some probably are, because early miners often treated coins as worthless and discarded their keys. The chain cannot tell lost coins from coins that are simply held, so the report counts them as unspent, never as lost.
- Coinbase output
- An output of a block's first transaction, through which the miner claimed the subsidy. In 2009 nearly every block paid it to a single public key.
- P2PK
- Pay-to-public-key: an output that locks coins directly to a public key, visible on-chain, rather than to its hash. Most early coinbase outputs use it.
- Extranonce
- A counter a miner puts in the coinbase transaction to get a fresh set of block hashes to search once the header's nonce runs out.
- Patoshi pattern
- A pattern in early blocks' extranonce and nonce values that researchers attribute to one dominant early miner. It is an inference, not proof of identity.
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