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Report · FolioPlanned

Is ETH Deflationary? ETH Supply Since the Merge

Has ETH supply gone up or down since the Merge, and what changed after Dencun and Fusaka?

A dated, cited answer on whether ETH supply has grown or shrunk since the Merge, era by era, and what moved the trend.

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Blueprint

What the report will cover.

The report as it will open in Folio. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.

A quarterly edition, dated and cited

Is ETH Deflationary? ETH Supply Since the Merge

  1. The answer, dated

    Whether ETH supply is higher or lower than at the Merge as of the edition's closing block, and whether it grew or shrank over the last year.

    • Supply at the Merge
    • Supply at the closing block
    • Net change since the Merge
    • Net change over the last year

  2. Burn and issuance by era

    Issuance, burn and net change for each era between upgrades: the Merge to Dencun, Dencun to Pectra, Pectra to Fusaka and after Fusaka.

    • Issuance per era
    • Burn per era
    • Net change per era
    • Average daily net change per era

  3. What blobs did to the burn

    How much of the burn came from blob fees in each era, and how the blob fee floor introduced with Fusaka changed it.

    • Blob fees burned per era
    • Blob share of the burn per era

  4. Why issuance moves slowly

    How issuance follows the amount of ETH staked, and how the staked total has changed since the Merge.

    • ETH staked at the end of each era
    • Daily issuance at the end of each era

  5. What drives the burn

    The activity behind the burn in each era: base fee levels, gas used and how much of the burn came from the busiest days.

    • Median base fee per era
    • Gas used per day per era
    • Burn on the ten busiest days of each era

  6. How to check this report

    Where each figure comes from: the blocks, epochs and reads behind it, and how to re-run them from the receipts.

About

What it answers, and for whom.

ETH is deflationary over a period when more ETH is burned than issued in it. Whether that holds depends on the period chosen, because issuance moves slowly with the amount staked while the burn swings with demand for block space. This report gives a dated answer for the whole period since the Merge and for each era between upgrades.

Each edition splits the record at the upgrades that changed the burn. Dencun moved rollup data into blobs with a fee market of their own, Pectra raised the blob target and Fusaka tied the blob fee floor to execution gas costs. For each era the report gives issuance, burn and the net change, so a reader can see which upgrade moved the trend and check every figure from its receipt.

Method

How it will be measured.

Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.

How receipts work →
  1. Burn is the base fee times gas used of every block since the first proof-of-stake block, plus the blob base fee times blob gas used since Dencun, read from block headers.
  2. Issuance is the net change in validator balances per day on the beacon chain, with deposits and withdrawals taken out so only rewards and penalties count.
  3. Eras begin at each upgrade's activation block, taken from client chain configurations and confirmed by the first block that carries the upgrade's new header fields or transaction types.
  4. The report is dated: every figure is pinned to a block before its publication date, and cumulative supply starts from the supply at the Merge, recorded with its source.

The data it needs

Read from chain state and history

  • eth_supply_dailyTo buildETH supply, issuance and burnDaily ETH issued to validators, ETH burned through the EIP-1559 base fee, and the resulting net change in ETH supply.
  • blob_usage_dailyTo buildBlob usage and blob feesEIP-4844 blobs posted per day, blob gas used, blob base fee, and the rollup that posted them.
  • eth_staking_dailyTo buildEthereum staking and validatorsActive validators, ETH staked, deposits, withdrawals and the entry and exit queues on the Ethereum beacon chain, by day, with staking-provider labels where known.
  • chain_fees_dailyTo buildFees and gas by chainFees paid per chain per day in the native token: base fee and priority fee percentiles, total fees, and the share burned where the chain burns fees.
  • Block headers since the first proof-of-stake block: base_fee_per_gas, gas_used, blob_gas_used and excess_blob_gas
  • Beacon chain validator balances per epoch, net of deposits and withdrawals
  • Activation blocks of Dencun, Pectra and Fusaka from client chain configurations, recorded with their source
  • The supply at the Merge, from a full balance count at the first proof-of-stake block
Questions

Questions people ask.

Is ETH deflationary?

Over some periods it has been and over others it has not. ETH is deflationary for a period when the ETH burned in it exceeds the ETH issued. This report answers the question for the whole period since the Merge and for each era between upgrades, with the closing block of each answer stated.

How did Dencun affect the ETH burn?

Dencun gave rollups blobs, a cheaper place to post their data with a fee market separate from regular gas. Rollup data that used to pay the base fee as calldata moved to blobs, whose fees stayed near the minimum while blob demand was below the target, so the burn from that activity fell.

What did Fusaka change for the burn?

Fusaka added a floor to the blob base fee tied to the execution base fee, so blobs can no longer clear at a near-zero price while regular gas is expensive. It also raised blob capacity through PeerDAS and later blob-parameter forks, which adds supply of blob space at the same time.

Does staking more ETH increase issuance?

Yes. Rewards per validator fall as more ETH is staked, but total issuance rises with the square root of the total stake. More staking therefore means more issuance, which is why the report shows the staked total beside each era's issuance.

Where does the supply at the Merge come from?

It is the total ETH supply at the first proof-of-stake block: every execution-layer balance plus the beacon chain balances, less the ETH held by the deposit contract. The report names the block and the source of the count, and adds each day's net change from there.

Deflationary
Describes a period in which an asset's supply shrinks; for ETH, a period in which more is burned than issued.
Blob
A data packet introduced by Dencun (EIP-4844) that rollups attach to transactions, priced in its own fee market and pruned by nodes after a few weeks.
Era
In this report, the period between two network upgrades, so the effect of each upgrade on burn and issuance shows on its own.
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