Prediction Market Volume by Platform
Weekly and monthly volume across prediction market platforms, on-chain venues and off-chain exchanges kept apart, each definition named.
Multi-chainPolygonBase+2Report · FolioPlanned
Prediction Markets Monthly Report: Volume and Share
How did prediction market volume and market share change this month, and which categories drove it?
Prediction markets each month: volume, open interest and traders by platform and category, with on-chain venues read from contracts.
ShareEmail it
Blueprint
What the report will cover.
The report as it will open in Folio. Each figure is named here and arrives with its receipt; until its data is published, its place stays empty.
A monthly edition, dated and cited
Prediction Markets Monthly Report: Volume and Share
The month in one paragraph
Total volume, open interest and traders, the platform that gained most and the events that drove the month.
- Volume this month
- Open interest at month end
- Active traders
Platforms and share
Volume and open interest by platform, on-chain and off-chain kept apart, with each platform's share and change from last month.
- Volume by platform
- On-chain share of volume
- Change from last month
What people traded
Volume by category, from sports and politics to economics and crypto prices, and how the mix moved during the month.
- Volume by category
- Largest category's share
The month's biggest markets
The markets with the most volume and open interest, their resolution dates and how concentrated the largest positions were.
- Top markets by volume
- Largest open positions
Resolutions and disputes
Markets resolved in the month, those disputed or reversed and how long the disputed ones took to settle.
- Markets resolved
- Resolutions disputed
Coverage and corrections
The venues read, the definition used for each platform and corrections to earlier editions.
About
What it answers, and for whom.
Prediction markets let people trade contracts that pay out on real-world outcomes: elections, sports, economic data and crypto prices. This report reviews each month in one dated edition: how much was traded, how much money sat in open positions, how many traders took part and how volume split between platforms and categories.
On-chain venues are counted from their own contracts, trade by trade, so their figures can be checked again by anyone. Regulated exchanges that run off-chain publish their own volume, which is quoted with its source and kept apart, because the two are not counted the same way. Each edition also names the markets that drew the most money and how disputed resolutions were settled.
Method
How it will be measured.
Every figure will be read at a block, kept with its source and its exact read, and open a receipt anyone can re-check.
How receipts work →- On-chain volume counts each matched trade once, from exchange fill events, valued in the collateral stablecoin; splits and merges of outcome tokens are not counted as trades.
- Open interest is the collateral locked in outstanding outcome tokens at the month's last block, read from each venue's conditional token contracts.
- Off-chain volume is the figure each regulated exchange publishes for the month, recorded with its source and never added to on-chain totals without a label.
- Categories come from each platform's market metadata, mapped to one shared list so that platforms can be compared.
The data it needs
Chain data, with some off-chain sources
- prediction_markets_dailyTo buildPrediction marketsVolume, open interest and traders per prediction market and category per day.
- address_labelsTo buildAddress labelsLabels for known addresses: exchanges, bridges, protocols, funds, treasuries, sanctioned addresses and known attackers.
- OrderFilled events from Polymarket's exchange contracts on Polygon
- Conditional token split, merge and redeem events, for open interest
- Fill events of on-chain prediction market contracts on Base, BNB Chain and Solana
- Monthly volume published by off-chain regulated exchanges, recorded with its source
- Market category labels from each platform's market metadata
Questions
Questions people ask.
Why do platforms count volume differently?
Some count the notional value of contracts traded, some the price paid and some both sides of each trade. The report uses one rule for on-chain venues, the collateral paid once per matched trade, and shows each off-chain exchange's own definition beside its figure.
How are prediction markets resolved?
Each market names a resolution source and process in its rules. On Polymarket, outcomes are proposed and can be disputed through UMA's optimistic oracle; other venues use their own oracles or an operator's decision. The report lists the month's disputed or reversed resolutions.
Which prediction markets are on-chain?
Polymarket settles on Polygon, and newer venues run on Base, BNB Chain and Solana. Regulated exchanges such as Kalshi run their order books off-chain. The report reads the on-chain venues from their contracts and cites the others.
What makes a month unusually busy?
Large scheduled events: elections, championship games and major economic releases concentrate volume. The report compares each month with the same month a year earlier where data exists, so a seasonal event is not mistaken for a trend.
How does this report relate to the volume dashboards?
The dashboards show prediction market volume day by day and week by week. This report is a dated monthly edition that sums the month, names what drove it and records resolutions, so a month can be cited later.
- Outcome token
- A token that pays one unit of collateral if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not; a market's price is the price of this token.
- Open interest
- The collateral locked in a venue's outstanding outcome tokens at a point in time.
- Optimistic oracle
- A resolution process in which an outcome is proposed and accepted unless someone disputes it within a set period.
Related
More apps like this.
Polymarket Volume and Open Interest Tracker
Polymarket's daily trading volume, open interest and active traders, counted once per trade from its contracts on Polygon.
PolygonDeFi Monthly Report: TVL, DEX Volume, Lending and Perps
A dated monthly account of DeFi: value locked by chain, spot and perp DEX volume, lending and liquidations, yields and buybacks.
Multi-chainCrypto ETF Monthly Report: Flows, Holdings and Launches
Spot crypto ETFs each month: net flows by asset and fund, coins held, fee changes, staking and launches, checked on-chain where possible.
Multi-chainBitcoinEthereum+4Crypto Liquidations Today: Longs vs Shorts
Leveraged positions force-closed in the last 24 hours, longs against shorts, by coin and venue, with exchange-reported totals kept apart.
Multi-chainHyperliquidEthereum+2Liquidation Heatmap from On-Chain Positions
Where open BTC and ETH positions on perpetual exchanges and lending markets would be liquidated, computed from the positions themselves.
Multi-chainHyperliquidEthereum+2Build Prediction Markets Monthly Report: Volume and Share on verified data.
Start free in Voltfin Studio: boards, tables and reports where every number opens its receipt. Tell us which data you need first and we will build it next.